economy
January 26, 2026
The elephant in the room between Trump and oil execs: Iraq
President Donald Trump painted a simplistic picture for the US operation in Venezuela: go in, get the oil and start exporting. But Big Oil’s experience in post-invasion Iraq proved that the reality will be far more complicated.
TL;DR
- President Trump's simplistic view of securing Venezuelan oil contrasts with the complicated reality seen in post-invasion Iraq.
- Iraq's oil industry, nationalized since the 1970s, experienced years of instability, looting, and insurgency after the 2003 invasion.
- Foreign oil companies were hesitant to invest in Iraq due to unattractive contract terms and a deteriorating security situation.
- Venezuela's political situation and the presence of multiple armed groups suggest potential security challenges that could be difficult to control.
- The Trump administration's approach in Venezuela, keeping remnants of the current regime in place, differs from the post-invasion Iraq strategy.
- Uncertainty regarding Venezuela's government, elections, and the agreement on oil operations makes it difficult for oil majors to justify investments.
- The Iraq experience highlights that the success of oil operations depends more on the on-the-ground situation than on the sheer volume of oil reserves.